Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:15:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
75 0x7572…67ee crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$49 (+8%) realized +$37 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%16W / 6L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +25.6% +13.7% 73% 73% +3.6%
≤30d 22 +25.6% +13.7% 73% 73% +3.6%
≤90d 22 +25.6% +13.7% 73% 73% +3.6%
all 22 +25.6% +13.7% 73% 73% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.7% 73% +3.6%
10% ← realistic here +2.8% 68% -6.3%
15% -7.1% 55% -15.4%
20% -16.2% 50% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$31 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses16 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 57¢ 76¢ $37 $49 +$12 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$41 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$21 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$15 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $44 +$27 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $38 +$16 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $32 +$35 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$16 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$12 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $38 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $27 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $30 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $30 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $16 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.35 · official $49.35 (match) · 41 history records