Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
75 0x7573…f359 other 7 markets active 4d ago coverage 172d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$20 (+44%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$9
world 21% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +94.5% +75.9% 75% 75% +74.3%
≤30d 4 +94.5% +75.9% 75% 75% +74.3%
≤90d 4 +94.5% +75.9% 75% 75% +74.3%
all 7 +44.3% +30.5% 57% 57% +28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.5% 57% +28.0%
10% +18.0% 57% +15.8%
15% +6.6% 43% +4.6%
20% -3.8% 29% -5.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +93% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.88 per $1 lost it wins $6.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage172d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 +$10 +103%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +246%
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jan 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Dec 30 $13 $0 -2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $10 +$3 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $19 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $9 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 37¢ $9 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $3 10d
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 168d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? SELL Yes 68¢ $13 171d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 171d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 174d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 174d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 176d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records