Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

75 0x7574…1081 politics 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 677d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$24 (+4%) realized +$50 · open −$26

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip

Net edge-56%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate30%3W / 7L

Drawdown82%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit82%portable

Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)-55.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	10	-50.9%	-55.6%	30%	30%	-4.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-55.6%	30%	-4.9%
10%	-59.8%	30%	-14.0%
15%	-63.7%	20%	-22.3%
20%	-67.3%	20%	-29.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 86% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -51% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$61 vs −$23 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.15 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

677d coverage

Net worth$74

Realized+$50

Unrealized−$26

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses3 / 7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)10 / 11

History coverage677d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown82%

Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	68¢	50¢	$100	$74	−$26 (-26%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford	Sep 14	$50	−$50	-100%
Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night	Sep 14	$100	+$25	+25%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?	Nov 17	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	Nov 17	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$137	+$90	+66%
Will Trump say "China" at his press conference?	Oct 09	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" at his press conference?	Oct 09	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" at his press conference?	Oct 09	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Donald Trump say "Hannibal Lecter" in border speech?	Oct 09	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Trump say "fraud" at debate?	Oct 09	$68	+$68	+100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	1h
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford	BUY Canelo	62¢	$50	282d
Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night	BUY Ansem	40¢	$100	564d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?	BUY Yes	20¢	$30	583d
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	BUY Yes	28¢	$50	589d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	60¢	$137	595d
Will Trump say "fraud" at debate?	BUY Yes	50¢	$68	652d
Will Donald Trump say "Hannibal Lecter" in border speech?	BUY Yes	36¢	$5	670d
Will Donald Trump say "Hannibal Lecter" in border speech?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	670d
Will Trump say "China" at his press conference?	BUY No	25¢	$5	677d
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" at his press conference?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	677d
Will Trump say "Crypto" at his press conference?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	677d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.26 · official $74.26 (match) · 22 history records