Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7576…82de weather 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 435d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$76 (-5%) realized −$74 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$11
14 days−$19
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$2
world 16% +$1
other 15% −$6
weather 14% −$65
sports 10% +$2
crypto 10% −$14
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +10.9% +0.4% 60% 60% +8.5%
≤30d 12 -33.1% -39.5% 33% 33% -31.1%
≤90d 19 -25.2% -32.3% 37% 37% -32.1%
all 46 -6.8% -15.7% 33% 24% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 24% -14.6%
10% -23.8% 22% -22.8%
15% -31.1% 22% -30.2%
20% -37.9% 17% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

435d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage435d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 27? No 62¢ 56¢ $26 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 26? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $7 +$9 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 25 $15 +$14 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 22? Jun 23 $14 +$5 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $28 +$15 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $17 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16? May 19 $4 +$10 +216%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 16 $21 +$11 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? May 12 $12 +$6 +48%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 6? May 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 3? May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $204 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $200 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Clippers Nov 14 $6 +$10 +178%
Trail Blazers vs. Magic Nov 14 $29 +$21 +71%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65-66°F on No Nov 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Heat Nov 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Nov 06 $6 +$10 +170%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in October? Nov 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 03 $18 $0 +0%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Aug 30 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on August 27? Aug 25 $11 $0 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4300 on August 22? Aug 21 $26 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 21 $30 +$1 +4%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 15 $22 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3800 and $3900 on July 28? Jul 27 $9 $0 -4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the NL Central Division? Jul 24 $18 −$1 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $12 $0 -3%
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 21 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament Jul 20 $42 −$5 -11%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 20 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 19 at 5PM Jul 19 $24 −$7 -27%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 29 $3 $0 -3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on Apr 25? Apr 24 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 18 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 62¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 38h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 51¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 66¢ $12 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $28 10d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $27 13d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 44¢ $11 14d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 14d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $17 14d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 64¢ $14 16d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 10? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 17d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 42d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? BUY Down 32¢ $4 44d
Wild vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 64¢ $21 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 48d
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 55¢ $23 52d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 3? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 55d
Golden Knights vs. Utah BUY Utah 50¢ $20 56d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $199 192d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $199 192d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $203 192d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $204 192d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $193 192d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $193 192d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $200 192d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $200 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.46 · official $23.47 (match) · 101 history records