Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x7576…c698 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$249 (-6%) realized −$204 · open −$45
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$337
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$133
other 27% −$216
world 7% −$249
crypto 3% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.5% -20.0% 67% 56% -35.5%
≤30d 18 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 44% -8.9%
≤90d 18 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 44% -8.9%
all 20 -13.9% -22.1% 45% 40% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 40% -11.6%
10% -29.6% 25% -20.1%
15% -36.4% 25% -27.8%
20% -42.6% 15% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$174 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions5
Markets (closed)20 / 25
History coverage583d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Yes $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $43 +$6 +14%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $51 +$3 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $75 −$73 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $304 −$249 -82%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$41 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $274 −$270 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$189 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $205 +$795 +388%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$168 +165%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$71 -70%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $504 −$500 -99%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $310 −$245 -79%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? SELL Yes $49 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? SELL Yes 10¢ $54 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes $103 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes $51 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes $43 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes $51 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $75 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $55 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $142 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $304 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $115 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira $21 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $392 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 61¢ $253 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $153 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $203 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $51 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $51 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 20¢ $205 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $102 7d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 10¢ $31 7d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 30¢ $102 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 70¢ $303 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.07 · official $405.07 (match) · 41 history records