Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7579…524a sports 1279 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$244 (-2%) realized −$231 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%643W / 586L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day43.8pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$172
14 days−$2
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$91
other 5% −$77
weather 1% −$47
crypto 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 438 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 47% -14.3%
≤30d 1016 -1.5% -10.9% 52% 50% -8.9%
≤90d 1229 -1.6% -11.0% 52% 49% -9.8%
all 1229 -1.6% -11.0% 52% 49% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 49% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 45% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 41% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 33% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$231
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses643 / 586
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1229 / 1279
History coverage55d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner FURIA 67¢ 100¢ $15 $23 +$7 (+49%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+31%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 38¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-41%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 49¢ 54¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 50¢ 39¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ALKA 56¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 488 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16 +$12 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi Jun 16 $5 +$6 +112%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 +$9 +237%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 +$4 +82%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $10 +$6 +58%
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $4 +$8 +216%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $5 +$7 +145%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $5 +$3 +61%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
ITF Milano: Fausto Tabacco vs Kirill Kivattsev Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$8 +156%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 +$5 +152%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $5 +$10 +202%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $15 +$14 +93%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$13 +249%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $11 +$11 +109%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 67¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 67¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 67¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 59¢ $5 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 42h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 9¢ $6 43h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $5 44h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $0 44h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $5 44h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 71¢ $5 44h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin BUY No 59¢ $5 44h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants BUY No 32¢ $6 45h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY Yes 23¢ $4 45h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY Yes 23¢ $1 45h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 69¢ $5 45h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 37¢ $5 45h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 36¢ $5 45h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi BUY Yes 47¢ $4 45h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi BUY Yes 47¢ $0 45h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Phi BUY Yes 47¢ $1 45h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 31¢ $4 45h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 70¢ $2 45h
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ALKA 56¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 BUY WAZABI 44¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 29¢ $4 2d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 41¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $4 2d
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 21¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 73¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 44¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.88 · official $114.08 (match) · 3064 history records