Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x757d…5c8c other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 190d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$18 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$41
sports 31% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -51.6% -56.2% 0% 0% -48.2%
≤30d 2 -51.6% -56.2% 0% 0% -48.2%
≤90d 3 -67.7% -70.8% 0% 0% -54.2%
all 5 -20.1% -27.7% 20% 20% -38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 20% -38.6%
10% -34.6% 20% -44.5%
15% -40.9% 20% -49.9%
20% -46.7% 20% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$14 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage190d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 40¢ $42 $25 −$17 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $43 −$1 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $39 −$30 -76%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $10 +$20 +203%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $42 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $42 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $43 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $43 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $9 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $30 16h
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 41d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) SELL Gaethje 100¢ $30 141d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Gaethje 33¢ $10 141d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 190d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.90 · official $12.29 · 10 history records