Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:23:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
75 0x7581…5a95 sports 188 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$15 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%75W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$12
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$19
sports 30% −$2
crypto 26% −$31
finance 0% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -11.3% -19.7% 35% 34% +1.4%
≤30d 98 -12.3% -20.7% 36% 35% -0.9%
≤90d 113 -11.3% -19.8% 35% 35% -0.9%
all 183 -8.0% -16.8% 41% 39% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 39% -5.3%
10% -24.8% 37% -14.4%
15% -32.0% 32% -22.6%
20% -38.7% 26% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses75 / 108
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)183 / 188
History coverage102d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 18¢ 48¢ $9 $25 +$16 (+169%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 22¢ $30 $11 −$18 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $23 +$11 +50%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $13 −$7 -57%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $12 +$12 +102%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw Jun 27 $9 −$7 -81%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $13 +$17 +129%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $13 −$11 -80%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $19 +$7 +40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $14 +$9 +64%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6 +$13 +197%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $11 $0 -2%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 $0 -12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 $0 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6 +$5 +85%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $9 +$9 +105%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $9 −$7 -79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 +$18 +230%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $13 −$4 -28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$25 -84%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $34 −$32 -95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8 +$23 +269%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$2 -16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $37 +$11 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 +$5 +49%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $11 −$8 -71%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -78%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19 +$22 +115%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $16 −$8 -48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $22 +$12 +54%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$7 -72%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -80%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $4 +$2 +53%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $4 $0 -12%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3 $0 -16%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2 $0 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 56m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 57m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 81¢ $28 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $23 4h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 10h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw SELL Yes 10¢ $0 10h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 87¢ $5 10h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw SELL Yes 19¢ $1 11h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw BUY Yes 34¢ $9 12h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 12h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 19h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 87¢ $5 19h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $3 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 19h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $6 19h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $13 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $13 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 82¢ $19 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $19 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 26h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 27h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.67 · official $36.67 (match) · 522 history records