Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

75 0x7586…80a6 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$19 (-10%) realized −$17 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate77%10W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$10

7 days+$10

14 days+$10

30 days−$13

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)-2.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+27.5%	+15.4%	83%	67%	+8.1%
≤30d	7	+9.3%	-1.1%	71%	57%	-25.9%
≤90d	13	+8.0%	-2.3%	77%	62%	-18.1%
all	13	+8.0%	-2.3%	77%	62%	-18.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.3%	62%	-18.1%
10%	-11.6%	46%	-26.0%
15%	-20.2%	38%	-33.1%
20%	-28.0%	31%	-39.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +7% → late +9% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.67 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage

Net worth$69

Realized−$17

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)77%

Wins / losses10 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)13 / 16

History coverage62d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Brazil	72¢	74¢	$61	$63	+$2 (+3%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	Yes	38¢	22¢	$10	$6	−$4 (-42%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 29	$25	+$2	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 29	$5	+$3	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 29	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 29	$5	+$2	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 29	$5	+$3	+56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 29	$5	+$6	+110%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07?	Jun 07	$24	−$23	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	May 19	$2	$0	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	May 19	$1	$0	+21%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Apr 28	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Apr 28	$20	+$2	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Apr 28	$2	+$1	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Apr 28	$2	+$1	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Brazil	72¢	$62	1h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AN	BUY	39¢	$10	1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$25	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	SELL Down	66¢	$8	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$5	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$5	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	SELL Up	78¢	$7	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$5	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	SELL Up	74¢	$8	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$5	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$5	5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07?	BUY Yes	40¢	$24	22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	SELL Up	49¢	$2	41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$2	41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	SELL Down	83¢	$1	41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$1	41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	SELL Up	88¢	$23	62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$20	62d
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$1	62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$2	62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	SELL Up	33¢	$3	62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$2	62d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.91 · official $70.99 · 29 history records