Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x758b…0a1c other 498 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2203 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$5,165 (-26%) realized −$4,333 · open −$832
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate61%74W / 48L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day2203.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$16,935now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$369
world 16% +$50
politics 11% +$925
culture 2% −$57
tech 2% −$82
sports 1% +$20
crypto 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2203 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+64.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 +82.3% +64.9% 61% 35% +7.2%
≤30d 122 +82.3% +64.9% 61% 35% +7.2%
≤90d 122 +82.3% +64.9% 61% 35% +7.2%
all 122 +82.3% +64.9% 61% 35% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2203.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +64.9% 35% +7.2%
10% ← realistic here +49.1% 30% -3.1%
15% +34.7% 27% -12.4%
20% +21.5% 25% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +82% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +133% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$4 · ×5.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.31 per $1 lost it wins $8.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$16,935
Realized−$4,333
Unrealized−$832
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses74 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions499
Markets (closed)122 / 498
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2203.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 499 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 76¢ $774 $760 −$15 (-2%)
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $673 $675 +$2 (+0%)
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? No 87¢ 86¢ $658 $657 −$1 (-0%)
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? No 86¢ 89¢ $482 $502 +$20 (+4%)
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 98¢ 97¢ $319 $317 −$3 (-1%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 95¢ 93¢ $273 $268 −$5 (-2%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%? No 72¢ 100¢ $163 $227 +$63 (+39%)
Will Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $221 $221 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 95¢ 100¢ $179 $188 +$9 (+5%)
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? No 71¢ 70¢ $185 $183 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 86¢ 88¢ $162 $166 +$4 (+2%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 89¢ 88¢ $154 $153 −$1 (-0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 44¢ 44¢ $142 $141 −$1 (-1%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $139 $140 +$1 (+1%)
Will Wilyer Abreu win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? No 97¢ 99¢ $136 $138 +$3 (+2%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 71¢ 69¢ $139 $135 −$4 (-3%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 97¢ 98¢ $127 $129 +$2 (+2%)
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 38¢ 40¢ $120 $129 +$9 (+8%)
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? No 80¢ 78¢ $127 $124 −$3 (-3%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $112 $120 +$8 (+7%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County? No 81¢ 95¢ $97 $114 +$17 (+18%)
Will Houston Astros win the 2026 AL West title? No 91¢ 91¢ $108 $109 +$0 (+0%)
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 NL East title? No 82¢ 78¢ $99 $94 −$5 (-5%)
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 45¢ 46¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $97 $92 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sandro Tonali join Inter Milan? Jun 20 $2 $0 +25%
Will T1 win MSI 2026? Jun 20 $42 +$22 +52%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $37 −$6 -16%
Will Nico Schlotterbeck stay at Borussia Dortmund? Jun 20 $23 −$3 -13%
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following Jun 20 $9 +$11 +128%
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Sen Jun 20 $18 −$6 -32%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 20 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Real Madrid? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 20 $22 −$2 -10%
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026? Jun 20 $68 −$6 -9%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 20 $118 +$2 +2%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 58m and 64m? Jun 20 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 20 $22 −$2 -8%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most Jun 20 $2 +$18 +706%
Will Jack Grealish join RB Leipzig? Jun 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? Jun 20 $27 −$7 -25%
Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026? Jun 20 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah join Fenerbahce? Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 AL Central title? Jun 20 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential Jun 20 $10 +$31 +317%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $19 −$4 -22%
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $21 −$2 -9%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $113 −$3 -3%
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 NL West title? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -90%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $124 −$2 -1%
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $27 −$7 -25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $1,998 −$11 -1%
Will the National Party win 25-29 seats in the New Zealand House of Re Jun 20 $8 −$6 -76%
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $30 +$19 +66%
Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Re Jun 20 $22 +$22 +97%
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $16 +$16 +104%
Will Caitlin Clark have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 Jun 20 $8 +$5 +59%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $15 $0 +2%
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 20 $68 +$92 +134%
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 20 $36 +$4 +12%
Will Dustin Johnson finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine? Jun 20 $27 +$5 +18%
Will Chicago Cubs win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $14 +$6 +45%
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 20 $20 +$20 +102%
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Jun 20 $21 +$19 +94%
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliame Jun 20 $22 −$2 -7%
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $20 $0 -2%
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen Jun 20 $137 +$323 +236%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $0 0m
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title BUY No 18¢ $4 3m
Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4m
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 5m
Will voter turnout be between 76% and 78% in the 2026 New Zealand gene SELL Yes 17¢ $1 5m
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title BUY No 19¢ $4 6m
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY Yes 27¢ $2 6m
Will Tyrrell Hatton finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 6m
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 7m
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 9m
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 12m
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 76¢ $15 13m
Will Sandro Tonali join Inter Milan? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 13m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $5 14m
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 61¢ $12 15m
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 16m
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title BUY Yes 80¢ $0 17m
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 13¢ $1 22m
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 13¢ $2 22m
Will Keith Mitchell finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 82¢ $11 23m
Will a player from Spain win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 24m
Will a player from Northern Ireland win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 24m
Will a player from England win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 24m
Will a player from Northern Ireland win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 24m
Will a player from Spain win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 24m
Will a player from England win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 24m
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + AC BUY Yes 45¢ $2 25m
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 26m
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $15 26m
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $17 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,935.14 · official $18,244.41 · 3500 history records