Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7590…33c4 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-3%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -6.2% -15.1% 56% 52% -23.4%
≤30d 27 -6.2% -15.1% 56% 52% -23.4%
≤90d 27 -6.2% -15.1% 56% 52% -23.4%
all 27 -6.2% -15.1% 56% 52% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 52% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 41% -30.7%
15% -30.7% 30% -37.4%
20% -37.5% 19% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $44 −$42 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $46 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 29 $44 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $37 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $101 +$40 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $53 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $53 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $53 −$17 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 +$5 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $22 +$18 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $1 +$2 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $141 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $101 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $65 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $53 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $60 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $53 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $37 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $53 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $33 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $22 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records