Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7590…e579 other 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39 (-11%) realized −$40 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%20W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$36
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$45
sports 18% −$15
crypto 8% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -21.3% -28.8% 32% 32% -18.1%
≤30d 62 -22.0% -29.4% 32% 32% -19.5%
≤90d 62 -22.0% -29.4% 32% 32% -19.5%
all 62 -22.0% -29.4% 32% 32% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 32% -19.5%
10% -36.2% 31% -27.2%
15% -42.3% 26% -34.3%
20% -48.0% 21% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses20 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)62 / 72
History coverage18d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 25¢ 24¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $3 +$3 +100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +132%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 -24%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -76%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 +$7 +712%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +92%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$18 +91%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$11 -69%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $4 +$4 +101%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G Jun 14 $2 +$9 +453%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $23 +$13 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $5 14m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 21m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 60¢ $6 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $2 18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $24 20h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $3 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 23h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 24h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1 42h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.26 · official $37.26 (match) · 131 history records