Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
75 0x7594…0d7f other 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$397 (-0%) realized −$396 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate80%93W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,105per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 36% −$44
politics 32% −$45
sports 30% −$299
crypto 1% +$7
other 1% −$30
tech 0% $0
culture 0% +$3
world 0% +$10
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 116 -6.3% -15.3% 80% 19% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 19% -9.8%
10% -23.4% 12% -18.4%
15% -30.8% 5% -26.3%
20% -37.6% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$29 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized−$396
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses93 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage615d
Avg bet$1,105
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $450 end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $252 $251 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down on May 28? Jun 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 28 $252 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 23 $251 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? Mar 19 $125 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in February? Mar 19 $126 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $90 in January? Feb 28 $113 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 28 $143 +$1 +0%
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? Jan 15 $11 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Jan 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 15 $122 +$1 +1%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Dec 02 $120 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $90 in November? Dec 02 $128 +$4 +3%
Will the ECB announce no change at the October meeting? Nov 17 $58 +$2 +3%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-09-20? Sep 30 $3 +$2 +54%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-09-20? Sep 30 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Le Havre AC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? Sep 30 $2 +$5 +245%
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-09-19? Sep 30 $10 +$2 +25%
Will FC Nantes win on 2025-09-20? Sep 30 $20 +$7 +35%
Will FC Metz win on 2025-09-21? Sep 30 $30 +$3 +10%
Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-09-20? Sep 30 $35 +$5 +13%
Will Angers SCO win on 2025-09-19? Sep 30 $40 +$5 +12%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-09-21? Sep 30 $42 +$7 +18%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-09-21? Sep 30 $80 +$10 +12%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 30 $46,246 −$46 -0%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-09-21? Sep 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-09-20? Sep 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-09-21? Sep 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-09-20? Sep 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-21? Sep 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-09-20? Sep 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-20? Sep 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-09-21? Sep 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Boston College vs. Stanford Sep 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Jacksonville State vs. Georgia Southern Sep 15 $30 −$30 -100%
New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech Sep 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech Sep 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame Sep 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina Sep 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Minnesota vs. California Sep 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Appalachian State vs. Southern Mississippi Sep 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Ohio vs. Ohio State Sep 15 $10 $0 +0%
UMass vs. Iowa Sep 15 $14 $0 +0%
Western Michigan vs. Illinois Sep 15 $20 $0 +1%
Eastern Michigan vs. Kentucky Sep 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Utah vs. Wyoming Sep 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Air Force vs. Utah State Sep 15 $30 +$47 +156%
Texas State vs. Arizona State Sep 15 $72 +$12 +16%
Navy vs. Tulsa Sep 15 $72 +$15 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $450 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $252 1h
BNB Up or Down on May 28? BUY Down 99¢ $11 26d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $252 60d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $251 95d
Will Solana dip to $50 in February? BUY No 100¢ $126 115d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $125 115d
Will Solana dip to $90 in January? BUY No 99¢ $113 159d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $143 159d
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025? BUY No 100¢ $11 189d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $50 189d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $40 189d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $30 189d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $122 202d
Will Solana dip to $90 in November? BUY No 97¢ $128 218d
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 BUY No 100¢ $120 237d
Will the ECB announce no change at the October meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $58 237d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-09-21? SELL No 81¢ $32 280d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-09-21? BUY No 83¢ $40 280d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-20? BUY No 68¢ $6 280d
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-09-21? BUY No 85¢ $42 280d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-09-21? BUY No 82¢ $40 280d
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-09-20? BUY No 65¢ $3 280d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-09-20? BUY No 81¢ $4 280d
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-09-21? BUY No 84¢ $20 280d
Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-09-20? BUY No 88¢ $35 280d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-09-20? BUY No 68¢ $8 280d
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-09-20? BUY No 53¢ $5 280d
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-09-19? BUY No 80¢ $10 280d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-21? BUY No 73¢ $8 280d
Will Le Havre AC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 280d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.42 · official $251.42 (match) · 248 history records