Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:55:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7595…b9c9 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% $0
world 27% $0
politics 17% $0
culture 5% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 60% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 60% 0% -9.5%
all 37 -0.3% -9.8% 35% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage269d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $28 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $60 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $22 $0 +2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 05 $13 $0 -2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 01 $9 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $21 $0 +2%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $22 $0 -1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 -9%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 25 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $31 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $31 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $18 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $11 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $28 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $28 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $1 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $29 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $23 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $23 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $6 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $29 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $11 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $18 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $13 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $16 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $31 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $31 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $31 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $31 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.27 · official $31.11 (match) · 127 history records