Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7595…f96a politics 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate7%4W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$14
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$19
other 27% −$6
sports 5% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -3.8% -12.9% 6% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 30 -2.8% -12.0% 3% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 51 -5.6% -14.6% 6% 2% -9.8%
all 54 -5.4% -14.4% 7% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 2% -9.8%
10% -22.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses4 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage242d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $827 −$2 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the Jun 29 $160 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $179 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $207 −$2 -1%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $199 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $2 $0 -19%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $208 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -21%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $163 −$1 -1%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -19%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $229 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $190 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $200 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $379 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $159 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $160 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 29 $300 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed Kudus be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 24 $250 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Quintero win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Apr 24 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2 $0 -12%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $198 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $209 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $168 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 12 $180 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $2 $0 -18%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $210 $0 -0%
Will Byeong Hun An win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 04 $259 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $1 $0 -14%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $1 $0 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 45m
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 3h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 13h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 19h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 21h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 22h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 24h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 33h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 34h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 37h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 42h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 2d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 2d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 3d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.87 · official $209.87 (match) · 231 history records