Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:53:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
75 0x7597…a3d7 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$56 (+4%) realized +$101 · open −$45
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$16
other 15% −$5
politics 14% +$31
crypto 7% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -9.1% -17.7% 60% 60% -5.4%
≤30d 5 -9.1% -17.7% 60% 60% -5.4%
≤90d 5 -9.1% -17.7% 60% 60% -5.4%
all 20 +8.1% -2.2% 60% 60% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 60% -12.6%
10% -11.6% 45% -20.9%
15% -20.1% 25% -28.6%
20% -27.9% 20% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$38 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$101
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage620d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 50¢ $128 $83 −$45 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $202 −$77 -38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $186 +$20 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $154 +$42 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$54 +55%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) Oct 15 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) Oct 15 $18 +$14 +74%
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) Oct 15 $15 +$3 +23%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 15 $12 +$3 +27%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Jan 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jan 20 $111 −$15 -13%
OpenSea token announcement in 2024? Jan 01 $94 +$17 +18%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $48 +$47 +97%
Will Lando Norris win the Brazilian Grand Prix? Nov 05 $72 −$72 -100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 03 $24 +$48 +203%
Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election? Nov 02 $25 −$1 -5%
Ankalaev vs. Rakic Oct 28 $19 +$5 +28%
Will the New York Liberty win the 2024 WNBA Finals? Oct 26 $14 +$5 +39%
Will the New York Yankees win the American League? Oct 20 $12 +$2 +18%
Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? Oct 15 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $129 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 43¢ $125 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $202 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $186 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $196 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $154 30h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $99 39h
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) BUY G2 Esports 39¢ $32 246d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) SELL Anyones Legend 99¢ $32 246d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) BUY Anyones Legend 57¢ $18 246d
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) SELL T1 100¢ $18 246d
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) BUY T1 81¢ $15 246d
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) BUY T1 79¢ $12 247d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 55¢ $96 514d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 66¢ $96 514d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 76¢ $111 533d
OpenSea token announcement in 2024? SELL No 100¢ $111 533d
OpenSea token announcement in 2024? BUY No 85¢ $47 585d
OpenSea token announcement in 2024? BUY No 85¢ $26 585d
OpenSea token announcement in 2024? BUY No 85¢ $21 585d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 99¢ $94 589d
Will Lando Norris win the Brazilian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 592d
Will Lando Norris win the Brazilian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 592d
Will Lando Norris win the Brazilian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 63¢ $42 592d
Will Lando Norris win the Brazilian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 592d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? BUY Yes 33¢ $24 593d
Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election? SELL Yes 83¢ $24 593d
Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 598d
Ankalaev vs. Rakic BUY Ankalaev 78¢ $19 600d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.28 · official $83.28 (match) · 43 history records