Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x7597…5f01 politics 767 markets active 2h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$76 (+0%) realized +$77 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate62%460W / 286L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$12
14 days+$57
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$199
politics 30% +$348
world 12% −$19
sports 5% −$186
crypto 2% +$39
tech 2% +$52
economics 1% +$5
culture 1% −$29
finance 0% +$14
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +12.4% +1.7% 56% 30% -8.5%
≤30d 165 +0.6% -9.0% 66% 27% -7.3%
≤90d 524 +11.5% +0.9% 65% 31% -6.4%
all 746 +4.8% -5.2% 62% 30% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 30% -9.4%
10% -14.2% 22% -18.1%
15% -22.5% 16% -26.0%
20% -30.1% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$374
Realized+$77
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses460 / 286
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)746 / 767
History coverage296d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 746 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $50 $84 +$34 (+69%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Trump say "Oil" during G7 events? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? No 53¢ 99¢ $15 $28 +$13 (+86%)
Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Qatari" during G7 events? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during G7 events? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump say "Transgender" during G7 events? No 70¢ 69¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-69%)
Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250? No 66¢ 98¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 64¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-14%)
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 50¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reece James score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 34¢ $3 $7 +$3 (+103%)
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 78¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+79%)
Will Trump say "Ay Ay Ay" in June? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+28%)
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 29¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+68%)
Will United States concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Strong" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $3 +$10 +341%
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF Jun 16 $21 +$3 +12%
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $25 −$4 -16%
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $7 +$5 +82%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Trump say "UFC" or "Fight" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during meeting with French Presi Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in June 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 15 $18 $0 -3%
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "World" during UFC 250? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Will the announcers say "Canada" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $757 −$3 -0%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $10 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $25 −$2 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $312 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast say "Win" or "Winner" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Trump say "Pig" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $2 +$3 +144%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $18 +$4 +25%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $29 +$5 +16%
Will Trump say "Landslide" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $12 −$9 -76%
Will Trump say "Kuwait" this week? Jun 05 $12 −$9 -74%
Will Trump say "Lion" this week? Jun 05 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during W Jun 05 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during coal announcement? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Miner" 3+ times during coal announcement? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Coal" 5+ times during coal announcement? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" during coal announcement? Jun 04 $62 +$48 +78%
Will Trump say "China" during coal announcement? Jun 04 $13 +$7 +50%
Will Trump say "Wind" during coal announcement? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Oil" during G7 events? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "Oil" during G7 events? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during G7 events? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 1h
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during G7 events? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "Transgender" during G7 events? BUY No 67¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "Transgender" during G7 events? BUY No 72¢ $4 1h
Will Trump say "Oil" during G7 events? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "Oil" during G7 events? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "Oil" during G7 events? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 1h
Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Qatari" during G7 events? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 2h
Will Trump say "Transgender" during G7 events? BUY No 70¢ $8 7h
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $13 9h
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 43¢ $21 9h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $29 9h
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during meeting with French Presi BUY Yes 99¢ $10 19h
Will Trump say "UFC" or "Fight" during meeting with French President? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 19h
Will Trump say "UFC" or "Fight" during meeting with French President? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 19h
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 20h
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 20h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $7 20h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 20h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $10 20h
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $30 20h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during meeting with French President? BUY No 55¢ $7 22h
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF BUY No 91¢ $15 23h
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $10 24h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $8 29h
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF BUY No 83¢ $6 33h
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $373.62 · official $373.63 (match) · 2584 history records