Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x7598…a610 other 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$209 (-4%) realized −$209 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$772now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,070
7 days+$1,070
14 days+$1,070
30 days+$1,070
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$601
world 20% −$1,000
sports 15% +$34
crypto 8% +$284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +36.6% +23.6% 75% 75% +31.3%
≤30d 8 +36.6% +23.6% 75% 75% +31.3%
≤90d 20 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 50% -11.3%
all 20 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 50% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 50% -11.3%
10% -29.6% 45% -19.8%
15% -36.4% 35% -27.5%
20% -42.6% 15% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$138 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$772
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage69d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $522 $519 −$3 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $254 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$210 +206%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $858 +$373 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $405 +$284 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $254 +$153 +60%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$11 -22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $351 +$42 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $302 +$68 +23%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $101 +$49 +49%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $41 −$40 -97%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $51 −$13 -26%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $51 −$50 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $60 +$25 +42%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $60 +$14 +24%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 19 $200 +$78 +39%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 13 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 15m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $22 50m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $312 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,231 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $807 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $689 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $405 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 77¢ $407 22h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $40 22h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $254 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $351 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $370 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $302 27h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $257 27h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 95¢ $151 41d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 64¢ $61 41d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 41d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 41d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $41 41d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $38 41d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $51 49d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $51 49d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 49d
Golden Knights vs. Utah BUY Utah 10¢ $5 49d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 56d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 80¢ $60 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $772.19 · official $772.26 (match) · 39 history records