Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x7599…2e2f other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,843 (+10%) realized +$3,896 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$947per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$7,189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,709
7 days+$2,435
14 days+$2,435
30 days+$2,435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$3,285
crypto 8% +$403
world 2% −$30
tech 1% −$49
culture 1% −$3
politics 0% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -9.4% -18.0% 62% 43% +3.0%
≤30d 21 -9.4% -18.0% 62% 43% +3.0%
≤90d 21 -9.4% -18.0% 62% 43% +3.0%
all 40 -6.8% -15.7% 55% 30% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 30% +3.2%
10% -23.8% 20% -6.7%
15% -31.1% 15% -15.7%
20% -37.9% 10% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$595) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$335 vs −$201 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$7,189
Realized+$3,896
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage231d
Avg bet$947
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $7,242 $7,189 −$53 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6,541 +$777 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,021 +$476 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,775 +$1,665 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,936 +$450 +15%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $88 −$88 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $81 +$6 +8%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 -6%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 20 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $110 +$3 +3%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 18 $102 +$40 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $388 −$388 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$136 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$148 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$19 +19%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $110 +$7 +6%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 17 $51 +$13 +26%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $260 −$243 -94%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? Jan 12 $124 −$53 -43%
U.S. strike on Nigeria by January 31, 2026? Jan 02 $4 $0 +4%
Will Mamady Doumbouya win the 2025 Guinean presidential election? Jan 02 $13 $0 +1%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 02 $595 +$3 +0%
U.S. strike on Nigeria by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $924 +$87 +9%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $957 +$138 +14%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $1,042 −$985 -95%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $1,254 −$1,175 -94%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Dec 29 $2 $0 +3%
Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025? Dec 29 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 05 $1,988 +$3,295 +166%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Nov 08 $304 −$23 -8%
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 04 $200 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Nov 04 $100 +$4 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Nov 03 $500 −$6 -1%
US forces in Venezuela by November 30? Nov 03 $500 −$8 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Nov 03 $250 −$3 -1%
Another US military action against Iran before 2026? Nov 03 $100 −$1 -1%
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be 36% o Nov 03 $143 +$92 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $7,307 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,317 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $4,733 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $4,726 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,607 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $4,815 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,497 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,688 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $333 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $3,308 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,386 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $678 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 12¢ $88 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $196 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $271 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,006 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $49 26h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 26h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL No 87¢ $97 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,188.87 · official $7,189.90 (match) · 162 history records