Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:51:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x759c…fd28 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$9
other 19% $0
politics 8% $0
sports 7% +$1
crypto 5% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -6.2% -15.2% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 9 -2.9% -12.2% 11% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 9 -2.9% -12.2% 11% 0% -11.6%
all 43 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 2% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -10.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage491d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $69 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 22 $30 −$7 -24%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $90 −$2 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 27 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 22 $8 $0 -1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of Ne Jun 10 $9 $0 -4%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 08 $8 $0 +2%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $7 $0 +3%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 30 $6 −$1 -10%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 29 $5 $0 -4%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 27 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Melania Trump attend Pope Francis' funeral? Apr 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 22 $4 $0 +1%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $11 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $12 $0 +3%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $11 $0 +1%
Prairie View A&M vs. Jackson State Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Anderlecht vs. Fenerbahce Mar 03 $10 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $35 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $21 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $12 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $33 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $36 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $36 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $9 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $24 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $33 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $29 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $27 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $12 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $7 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $32 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $11 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $44 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $40 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $37 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $39 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $28 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $11 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.69 · official $35.69 (match) · 133 history records