Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x759d…cc80
weather · 595 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,845 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,850 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,850
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses36 / 558
Open positions1
Markets (closed)594 / 595
History coverage11d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day298.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 594 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$407
7 days−$1,245
14 days−$1,850
30 days−$1,850
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? No 80¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 4? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on June 1? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 5? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 6? No 74¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 3? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $21 −$4 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $93 −$6 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 −$7 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 −$6 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $139 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $40 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $78 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $28 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $14 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $74 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $91 −$5 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? Jun 12 $131 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $24 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $8 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $132 −$8 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $107 −$8 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$1,852
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 62¢ $11 7m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 73¢ $36 7m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 63¢ $12 7m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $38 7m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $24 8m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? SELL No 59¢ $23 11m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 59¢ $23 11m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 17m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 17m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 17m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 17m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 17m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 32m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 32m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 44m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 59¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 58¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 402 -5.8% -14.8% 5% 0% -17.9%
≤30d 594 -3.9% -13.1% 6% 1% -18.1%
≤90d 594 -3.9% -13.1% 6% 1% -18.1%
all 594 -3.9% -13.1% 6% 1% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover298.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 1% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 1% -25.9%
15% -29.0% 1% -33.1%
20% -36.0% 1% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records