Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75a2…6992 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,366 (-8%) realized −$90 · open −$2,276
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$911per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$7,561now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$415
30 days−$1,035
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$4,110
tech 29% −$7,291
sports 4% −$87
crypto 3% −$56
politics 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 19 -14.1% -22.3% 53% 53% -14.1%
≤90d 19 -14.1% -22.3% 53% 53% -14.1%
all 19 -14.1% -22.3% 53% 53% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 53% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 42% -22.3%
15% -36.5% 26% -29.8%
20% -42.7% 16% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,382) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$732 vs −$928 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$7,561
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$2,276
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions14
Markets (closed)19 / 34
History coverage26d
Avg bet$911
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,611 $1,421 −$190 (-12%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 17¢ 30¢ $500 $900 +$400 (+80%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $724 $744 +$20 (+3%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 23¢ $1,074 $722 −$352 (-33%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $590 $707 +$117 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $612 $631 +$19 (+3%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $749 $629 −$120 (-16%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $630 $337 −$292 (-46%)
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $300 $313 +$13 (+4%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 36¢ 10¢ $1,072 $296 −$776 (-72%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $225 $269 +$44 (+20%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $872 $245 −$627 (-72%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? No 30¢ 16¢ $450 $242 −$208 (-46%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 58¢ 14¢ $428 $104 −$325 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $631 −$616 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $510 +$420 +82%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $4,354 −$4,187 -96%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $1,609 −$1,376 -86%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $525 −$525 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $72 +$18 +25%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5,919 +$2,581 +44%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $493 +$163 +33%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $522 +$1,028 +197%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 09 $711 −$665 -94%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $538 +$236 +44%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1,774 +$2,509 +141%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $103 +$18 +17%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $414 −$410 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 02 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 02 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -95%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $482 −$466 -97%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $1,761 +$312 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $450 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $300 2h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $450 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $269 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 3h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $38 3h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 5h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $120 6h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 7h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $142 13h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $56 18h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 18h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 18h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $17 19h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 19h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $150 19h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $606 39h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $422 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $99 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $125 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $116 2d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $255 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $514 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AN BUY 25¢ $307 3d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $200 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $500 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,560.99 · official $7,804.33 · 350 history records