trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 45% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 45% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 20 | -4.8% | -13.9% | 50% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.9% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -22.1% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -29.7% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -36.6% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $29 | $29 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 03 | $30 | −$2 | -5% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $95 | +$2 | +2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 02 | $58 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 01 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 29 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 29 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 28 | $29 | $0 | +1% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 28 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 28 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 27 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 26 | $8 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 17 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.6% and 4.7% on April 11? | Apr 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 19 | $11 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 14 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14? | Mar 13 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 12 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20? | Mar 04 | $10 | +$1 | +6% |