Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
75 0x75a5…a5bf politics 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 649d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,801 (+5%) realized +$3,360 · open +$441
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate50%79W / 78L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$422per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2,629now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$89
14 days−$89
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 25% +$693
sports 20% +$2,196
tech 17% −$1,313
politics 15% +$175
other 15% +$2,479
crypto 7% +$55
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -38.3% -44.2% 25% 25% -35.9%
≤30d 4 -38.3% -44.2% 25% 25% -35.9%
≤90d 4 -38.3% -44.2% 25% 25% -35.9%
all 157 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 32% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 32% -3.2%
10% -20.0% 27% -12.5%
15% -27.7% 22% -20.9%
20% -34.8% 15% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$130 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

649d coverage
Net worth$2,629
Realized+$3,360
Unrealized+$441
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses79 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)157 / 164
History coverage649d
Avg bet$422
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner T1 77¢ 100¢ $1,645 $2,145 +$500 (+30%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? Yes 49¢ 47¢ $259 $250 −$9 (-3%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner T1 59¢ 50¢ $118 $101 −$17 (-14%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? Yes $57 $55 −$2 (-4%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? Yes 18¢ 11¢ $73 $45 −$27 (-38%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $36 $32 −$4 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $116 $0 -0%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $68 +$32 +47%
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -99%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Aug 21 $1,007 −$374 -37%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 21 $1,390 +$403 +29%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 16 $2,714 −$1,697 -62%
Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 11 $387 −$387 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 7? Aug 06 $215 −$215 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? Aug 05 $2,181 +$629 +29%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31? Aug 05 $3,102 +$534 +17%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 31 $327 −$327 -100%
Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August? Jul 30 $220 +$80 +36%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025? Jul 29 $40 −$6 -14%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jul 29 $326 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jul 29 $1,957 +$1,393 +71%
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline? Jul 26 $484 −$30 -6%
XRP Up or Down - July 23, 3PM ET Jul 23 $111 −$111 -100%
XRP Up or Down - July 23, 2PM ET Jul 23 $6 +$1 +15%
Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? Jul 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Israel military action against Iran in July? Jul 14 $661 −$278 -42%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11? Jul 12 $690 +$60 +9%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jul 12 $1,261 +$1,005 +80%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 10 $60 −$18 -31%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 09 $59 −$47 -80%
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking? Jul 02 $339 −$339 -100%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $122 −$113 -93%
XRP Up or Down on June 29? Jun 30 $679 −$57 -8%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $67 −$58 -87%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET Jun 29 $13 +$17 +129%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET Jun 28 $505 +$458 +91%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 28 $401 +$172 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? Jun 28 $392 +$407 +104%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 23 $6 −$2 -32%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 22 $4 +$2 +53%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 11 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024? Mar 11 $4 +$4 +111%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Mar 11 $811 −$105 -13%
Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska? Nov 19 $266 −$28 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? Nov 13 $795 −$672 -84%
Israel military strike against Iran in November? Nov 13 $2,728 +$117 +4%
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet? Nov 12 $1,619 +$34 +2%
Bitcoin above $76,000 on November 15? Nov 12 $278 +$26 +10%
Broncos vs. Chiefs Nov 11 $1,156 +$1,792 +155%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154 Nov 10 $2 −$1 -49%
Jazz vs. Spurs Nov 10 $7,403 −$1,349 -18%
Bulls vs. Hawks Nov 10 $1,505 +$960 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 60¢ $60 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 58¢ $44 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 58¢ $14 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 67¢ $202 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 67¢ $140 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 67¢ $40 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 67¢ $288 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 74¢ $196 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $150 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 89¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 89¢ $56 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $70 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 89¢ $92 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 89¢ $99 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 89¢ $31 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $88 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 89¢ $6 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $88 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $88 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 90¢ $180 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 90¢ $90 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 89¢ $178 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 89¢ $191 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $86 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 79¢ $489 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND Will South Africa win on BUY 18¢ $25 25h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 2d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 32¢ $35 2d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,628.79 · official $2,628.79 (match) · 1230 history records