Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75a7…2d61 sports 617 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,777 (-4%) realized −$7,471 · open −$306
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%205W / 408L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$3,130est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,101
7 days−$9,601
14 days−$28,404
30 days−$8,949
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$7,966
other 3% −$2,584
crypto 1% −$112
world 0% −$357
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -38.4% -44.3% 24% 24% -34.4%
≤30d 381 -12.5% -20.8% 35% 34% -16.1%
≤90d 381 -12.5% -20.8% 35% 34% -16.1%
all 613 -11.7% -20.1% 33% 33% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 33% -14.7%
10% -27.8% 31% -22.9%
15% -34.7% 30% -30.3%
20% -41.1% 28% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +25% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$460 vs −$257 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$7,471
Unrealized−$306
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses205 / 408
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$3,130
Open positions4
Markets (closed)613 / 617
History coverage108d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 613 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 60¢ 46¢ $274 $212 −$62 (-22%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 29¢ 12¢ $100 $43 −$57 (-57%)
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Colton Smith 25¢ 0¢ $116 $0 −$116 (-100%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Terence Atmane 17¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $204 +$358 +176%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $194 +$318 +164%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $16 −$16 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $376 −$112 -30%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $263 −$263 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $281 −$281 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji Jun 17 $151 −$151 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 17 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $241 −$241 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $357 −$357 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $337 −$337 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $108 −$79 -73%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $306 +$187 +61%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $203 +$104 +51%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $332 +$689 +208%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 16 $286 +$37 +13%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 16 $246 −$246 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $478 +$438 +92%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $269 −$269 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 16 $314 −$314 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 16 $147 −$147 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $334 −$334 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $224 −$224 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 16 $297 −$39 -13%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 16 $347 −$154 -44%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 16 $661 −$180 -27%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $255 −$255 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $301 −$301 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $271 −$271 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $240 −$240 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $306 −$306 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $205 −$76 -37%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $156 −$156 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $296 −$79 -27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 16 $205 −$205 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $277 18m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $102 26m
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel SELL Gerard Campana Lee 93¢ $562 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Terence Atmane 17¢ $74 1h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 25¢ $119 1h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 33¢ $204 2h
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti BUY Felix Balshaw 18¢ $102 2h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 92¢ $287 3h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 72¢ $225 3h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 30¢ $194 3h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 2¢ $16 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 18¢ $45 5h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $241 14h
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji BUY Hikaru Sato 16¢ $151 15h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 16¢ $92 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $204 16h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 44¢ $281 17h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $154 17h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 43¢ $263 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 46¢ $264 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 31¢ $70 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 32¢ $102 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 32¢ $204 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $29 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $108 20h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 9¢ $93 26h
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov BUY Franco Ribero 19¢ $205 27h
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov BUY Franco Ribero 18¢ $11 27h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 56¢ $493 27h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 99¢ $123 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.90 · official $260.47 · 1762 history records