Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x75a8…ff19 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$162 (+5%) realized +$162 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$347
7 days+$631
14 days+$583
30 days+$583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$59
sports 18% +$239
crypto 16% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +26.5% +14.5% 61% 61% +38.8%
≤30d 22 +16.8% +5.7% 59% 59% +25.1%
≤90d 22 +16.8% +5.7% 59% 59% +25.1%
all 36 +8.8% -1.6% 50% 44% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 44% -4.9%
10% -11.0% 39% -14.0%
15% -19.6% 36% -22.3%
20% -27.5% 25% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$57 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$470
Realized+$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)36 / 42
History coverage237d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $41 +$150 +365%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $102 +$243 +238%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Jan 10 $16 $0 +0%
Cardano ETF in 2025? Jan 10 $98 +$58 +59%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 10 $500 +$22 +4%
Will MOUZ win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Nov 09 $50 −$7 -14%
Will Team Falcons win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Nov 09 $50 −$5 -10%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 08 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Team Vitality win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament? Nov 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will The MongolZ win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament? Nov 06 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 03 $18 −$18 -100%
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 01 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 01 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Nov 01 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $20 +$111 +567%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $80 +$33 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 43h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 21¢ $20 43h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 21¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $51 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 66¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 36¢ $51 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 9¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $41 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $51 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $470.30 · official $469.96 (match) · 69 history records