Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x75a8…d6f1
crypto · 19 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$54 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$782
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 2 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $585 $570 −$15 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $215 $211 −$4 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $62 −$59 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$33 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$35 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% −$15
crypto 26% −$35
sports 20% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $220 19m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $599 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $13 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +12.2% +1.5% 59% 53% -21.0%
≤30d 17 +12.2% +1.5% 59% 53% -21.0%
≤90d 17 +12.2% +1.5% 59% 53% -21.0%
all 17 +12.2% +1.5% 59% 53% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 53% -21.0%
10% -8.2% 53% -28.5%
15% -17.1% 41% -35.4%
20% -25.2% 41% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $781.79 · official $781.79 (match) · 43 history records