Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:15:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x75a9…2a7b
crypto · 154 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$49 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$56 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses96 / 53
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)149 / 154
History coverage139d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 5 History 149 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $12 +$5 +44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 $0 -10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 $0 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 24 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 24 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 24 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 24 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 24 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 24 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 24 $136 −$15 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 24 $46 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 24 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 24 $71 +$16 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 24 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 24 $90 −$50 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 24 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 24 $19 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 24 $40 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 24 $15 −$13 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 24 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 07 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7AM ET Feb 07 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 07 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 07 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 07 $17 +$12 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 07 $75 −$10 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 07 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 07 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9AM ET Feb 05 $10 −$8 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 05 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8AM ET Feb 05 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 05 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 05 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 05 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 05 $20 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 05 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 04 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 04 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 04 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 04 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 03 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 03 $14 +$3 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% +$53
other 1% −$12
sports 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $10 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 69¢ $12 43h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 45h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 46h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $8 46h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $8 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $8 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $11 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $9 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.3% -5.6% 50% 50% -4.2%
≤30d 11 -3.1% -12.4% 27% 27% -12.7%
≤90d 11 -3.1% -12.4% 27% 27% -12.7%
all 149 +1.3% -8.3% 64% 48% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 48% -8.3%
10% -17.1% 28% -17.1%
15% -25.1% 13% -25.1%
20% -32.4% 7% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.87 · official $39.87 (match) · 504 history records