Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:26:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
75 0x75aa…5e3d crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%24W / 29L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$91
other 13% −$7
sports 9% +$14
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -3.2% -12.5% 45% 36% +4.6%
≤30d 53 -3.2% -12.5% 45% 36% +4.6%
≤90d 53 -3.2% -12.5% 45% 36% +4.6%
all 53 -3.2% -12.5% 45% 36% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 36% +4.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 26% -5.4%
15% -28.5% 26% -14.5%
20% -35.5% 19% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses24 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 61
History coverage4d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 14¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$9 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$12 +222%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$4 +8%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$25 +126%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$18 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$6 +40%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$7 +55%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -73%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $16 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arge BUY 22¢ $10 17h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $17 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.41 · official $21.41 · 150 history records