Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:10:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x75ab…b20e
sports · 668 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
−$3,973 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,976 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$3,976
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses281 / 377
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$343
Open positions10
Markets (closed)658 / 668
History coverage79d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 10 History 658 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$21
14 days−$24
30 days−$2,072
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 36¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Elsa Jacquemot Linda Fruhvirtova 67¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 69¢ 0¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
ITF Estepona: Nahia Berecoechea vs Ariana Arseneault Ariana Arseneault 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-03? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 21¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-04-25? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Jaqueline Cristian Jaqueline Cristian 60¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry Dino Prizmic 42¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-02? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Alexander Shevchenko Alexander Shevchenko 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$49 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$33 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$7 -63%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $200 −$43 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$76 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$31 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $102 −$50 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$17 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $400 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $200 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$9 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$4 -4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$9 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$1 -5%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$27 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$24 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $78 −$19 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$49 +96%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$11 +43%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $30 −$2 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $50 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$36 +140%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $120 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$14 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$19 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 43% −$2,655
crypto 28% −$557
world 24% −$793
other 4% +$23
finance 0% +$9
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $100 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 1h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 41¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 65¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $79 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 49¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $82 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -8.5% -17.2% 45% 39% -10.0%
≤30d 413 +11.3% +0.7% 44% 33% -13.9%
≤90d 658 +7.9% -2.4% 43% 32% -14.8%
all 658 +7.9% -2.4% 43% 32% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 32% -14.8%
10% -11.7% 26% -22.9%
15% -20.3% 22% -30.4%
20% -28.1% 18% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.96 · official $40.96 (match) · 1511 history records