Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75ad…2a39 politics 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$11
other 32% −$7
sports 21% −$4
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 86 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage197d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $281 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $571 −$4 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $285 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $850 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 21 $285 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $285 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $285 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $285 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 13 $285 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $284 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $571 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $285 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $285 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $286 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $286 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Apr 02 $286 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $286 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $286 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $286 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Mar 27 $286 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $286 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $286 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $287 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $580 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 13 $287 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 12 $287 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $287 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $279 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $281 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $278 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 03 $276 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 26 $274 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $277 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Feb 25 $281 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $277 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Feb 23 $282 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $277 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 07 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 06 $277 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $284 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 04 $279 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $281 $0 -0%
Will Reform Party (RP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? Feb 01 $281 $0 -0%
Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 30 $281 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 30 $282 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $281 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $281 14h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $281 12d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $285 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $285 19d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $285 20d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $285 20d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $285 21d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $285 28d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $285 28d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $285 29d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $285 30d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $285 30d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $285 30d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $285 32d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 33d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 33d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 33d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $95 33d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $91 33d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $285 33d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $285 34d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $285 35d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $285 35d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $284 37d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $284 38d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $285 60d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $285 61d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $285 62d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $285 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 270 history records