Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:08:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75b0…e7b7 weather 728 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$625 (+3%) realized +$636 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate53%374W / 327L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day135.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$115
7 days−$16
14 days+$98
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$8
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 33% -9.8%
≤30d 701 +1.7% -8.0% 53% 32% -9.5%
≤90d 701 +1.7% -8.0% 53% 32% -9.5%
all 701 +1.7% -8.0% 53% 32% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 32% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 21% -18.2%
15% -24.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.2% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$666
Realized+$636
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses374 / 327
Open positions27
Markets (closed)701 / 728
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day135.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 701 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? No 81¢ 90¢ $39 $43 +$5 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? No 81¢ 83¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? No 81¢ 82¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 22? No 81¢ 82¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? No 81¢ 81¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 22? No 81¢ 80¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? No 81¢ 80¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? No 81¢ 76¢ $39 $36 −$3 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 22? No 80¢ 74¢ $38 $35 −$3 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 22? No 67¢ 75¢ $32 $35 +$4 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 22? No 75¢ 74¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22? No 74¢ 74¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 22? No 78¢ 71¢ $37 $34 −$4 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? No 71¢ 62¢ $34 $30 −$5 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? No 81¢ 55¢ $39 $27 −$12 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 21? No 81¢ 96¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? No 77¢ 92¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+19%)
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 22? No 81¢ 82¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? No 81¢ 76¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? No 74¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? No 81¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 21? No 81¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 22? No 81¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 22? Jun 21 $39 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22? Jun 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21? Jun 21 $37 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 21 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $39 +$9 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $39 +$9 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 21 $39 +$9 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 20? Jun 21 $7 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 21 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $38 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 21 $38 +$10 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 20? Jun 21 $39 +$9 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 20? Jun 21 $9 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $39 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? Jun 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 20 $39 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 19? Jun 20 $36 −$4 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 19? Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 21? Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 21? Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 20 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $39 +$9 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $23 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $39 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 81¢ $9 3m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 81¢ $2 15m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $4 38m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 81¢ $39 42m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 22? SELL No 81¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 22? SELL No 81¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 22? SELL No 81¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 81¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 81¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 81¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 81¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 75¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY No 81¢ $39 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 22? BUY No 81¢ $39 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 22? BUY No 81¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 81¢ $39 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 81¢ $28 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 81¢ $11 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21? SELL No 81¢ $17 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21? SELL No 81¢ $22 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 75¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL No 83¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL No 83¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 76¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL No 92¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 81¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 81¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 81¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 81¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 81¢ $7 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $666.35 · official $666.36 (match) · 3500 history records