Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75b0…7db2 sports 266 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,703 (-8%) realized −$1,871 · open +$168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%87W / 177L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$785
7 days−$1,836
14 days−$1,877
30 days−$2,456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$1,179
other 38% −$795
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -38.1% -44.0% 19% 15% -26.2%
≤30d 160 -40.7% -46.3% 19% 18% -25.9%
≤90d 212 -36.9% -42.9% 24% 21% -19.5%
all 264 -24.0% -31.3% 33% 27% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 27% -18.4%
10% -37.8% 20% -26.2%
15% -43.8% 16% -33.3%
20% -49.3% 13% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$33 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$518
Realized−$1,871
Unrealized+$168
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses87 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions2
Markets (closed)264 / 266
History coverage114d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 48¢ 99¢ $250 $518 +$268 (+107%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 24¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $151 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $520 −$515 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $303 +$158 +52%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $213 −$168 -79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $39 −$12 -30%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,504 +$139 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,502 +$55 +2%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $9 −$7 -77%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $61 −$39 -64%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $203 −$109 -54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$68 +34%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$96 +48%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $404 −$400 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $259 −$256 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$75 +246%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $13 +$57 +455%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 +$49 +456%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $710 −$79 -11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $53 −$52 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $553 +$116 +21%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$103 +614%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $34 −$33 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $254 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 24¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 31¢ $102 3h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 52¢ $101 4h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 48¢ $41 4h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 48¢ $9 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $112 47h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $203 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $403 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $51 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 18¢ $13 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $461 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 65¢ $303 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 12¢ $45 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $14 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $213 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $38 4d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $144 4d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 18¢ $8 4d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 18¢ $10 4d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 15¢ $10 4d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 13¢ $12 4d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 25¢ $16 4d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 14¢ $4 4d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 14¢ $0 4d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 14¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $518.18 · official $518.18 (match) · 586 history records