Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:12:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75b0…63c6 crypto 299 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$37 (+0%) realized +$38 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate56%185W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$147
14 days−$117
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$144
sports 30% −$333
other 8% +$15
finance 0% −$2
politics 0% −$7
tech 0% +$1
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -49.5% -54.3% 38% 7% -14.1%
≤30d 321 -20.6% -28.1% 56% 14% -11.0%
≤90d 333 -21.2% -28.7% 56% 14% -11.1%
all 333 -21.2% -28.7% 56% 14% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 14% -11.1%
10% -35.6% 3% -19.6%
15% -41.8% 2% -27.4%
20% -47.5% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses185 / 148
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions9
Markets (closed)333 / 299
History coverage38d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 72¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Moise Kouame win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Marin Cilic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sebastian Korda win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Denis Shapovalov win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 -24%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 18 $5 −$1 -26%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $143 +$11 +8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $110 +$4 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 43¢ $4 1h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $2 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 98¢ $114 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $50 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $110 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 38¢ $19 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 12¢ $6 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $20 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $20 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $11 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $20 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $10 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 98¢ $78 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $25 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 14¢ $11 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 78¢ $5 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 74¢ $5 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 74¢ $5 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 75¢ $2 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.00 · official $50.00 (match) · 826 history records