Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:30:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x75b1…0c7f sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$112 (-5%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% $0
other 7% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 6 -15.3% -23.4% 17% 0% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 0% -14.1%
10% -30.7% 0% -22.4%
15% -37.4% 0% -29.9%
20% -43.5% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$23 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage526d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liverpool FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw? Jan 29 $37 +$3 +9%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $112 −$112 -100%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 23 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Jan 22 $442 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 22 $372 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $189 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $34 1h
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-01-28? BUY No 49¢ $112 152d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $37 152d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $247 522d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $248 522d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $186 522d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $186 522d
Manchester United wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $219 523d
Manchester United wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $219 523d
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $194 523d
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $194 523d
Manchester United wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $222 523d
Manchester United wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $222 523d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $226 524d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $227 524d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $225 524d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $226 524d
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $177 524d
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $178 524d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $154 524d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $154 525d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $189 525d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $189 525d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.33 · official $33.33 (match) · 24 history records