Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

75 0x75b4…dfd0 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$536 (+17%) realized +$536 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate79%11W / 3L

Drawdown28%max

Avg bet$219per market

Trades / day14.9pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit7%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+4.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+14.9%	+4.0%	79%	71%	+11.6%
≤30d	14	+14.9%	+4.0%	79%	71%	+11.6%
≤90d	14	+14.9%	+4.0%	79%	71%	+11.6%
all	14	+14.9%	+4.0%	79%	71%	+11.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.0%	71%	+11.6%
10%	-6.0%	50%	+0.9%
15%	-15.1%	36%	-8.8%
20%	-23.4%	14%	-17.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 57% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +23% → late +6% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$99 vs −$125 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$536

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)79%

Wins / losses11 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)14 / 14

History coverage4d

Avg bet$219

Trades / day14.9

Drawdown28%

Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 14 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 29	$102	+$38	+37%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 29	$405	+$92	+23%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 29	$68	+$93	+138%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 29	$153	−$150	-98%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 29	$378	+$148	+39%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Jun 29	$209	−$200	-96%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 29	$26	+$2	+8%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Jun 29	$609	+$180	+30%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Jun 26	$656	+$445	+68%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Jun 26	$217	+$78	+36%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 26	$154	−$26	-17%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 26	$43	+$6	+15%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Jun 26	$50	+$6	+12%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B	Jun 25	$1	$0	+20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$52	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$46	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$103	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$102	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$10	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$5	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$52	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$51	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$203	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$174	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$26	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	13¢	$27	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$105	2h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$26	2h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$26	2h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	2h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$25	2h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$201	2h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$203	2h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$205	2h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$51	3d
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Down	77¢	$25	3d
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$51	3d
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$51	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records