Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:08:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75b9…20d1 weather 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$93 (-13%) realized −$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%59W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$22
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$84
weather 42% +$10
sports 12% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.6% -11.0% 62% 62% +5.8%
≤30d 120 -13.6% -21.8% 49% 48% -26.7%
≤90d 120 -13.6% -21.8% 49% 48% -26.7%
all 120 -13.6% -21.8% 49% 48% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 48% -26.7%
10% -29.3% 45% -33.7%
15% -36.1% 37% -40.1%
20% -42.4% 24% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses59 / 61
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage23d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? No 68¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean Leolia Jeanjean 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? No 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29? No 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 26? No 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils Gael Monfils 41¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? No 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 25? No 70¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? No 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? No 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 24? No 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? No 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Kosice: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Martin Krumich Dominic Stephan Stricker 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? No 57¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 30? No 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$6 +93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $8 +$3 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 08 $4 +$2 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$3 +53%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? Jun 04 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 2? Jun 04 $6 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 2? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 31? May 31 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 31? May 31 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 31? May 31 $3 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? May 31 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $3 +$2 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? May 31 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 30? May 30 $2 +$1 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 30? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30? May 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $3 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28? May 29 $3 +$2 +81%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $1 +$1 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 28? May 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $2 +$2 +81%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $1 +$3 +262%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 28? May 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? May 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 28 $9 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 28 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 28 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 28 $8 −$6 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 50¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 70¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? BUY No 57¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? BUY No 53¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? BUY No 65¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? BUY No 46¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? BUY No 66¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 74¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 49¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $9 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? BUY No 45¢ $4 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? BUY No 64¢ $6 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? BUY No 51¢ $8 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? BUY No 78¢ $8 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? BUY No 67¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? BUY No 67¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? BUY No 32¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 2? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 2? BUY No 66¢ $6 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 3? BUY No 69¢ $3 12d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? BUY No 53¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? BUY No 47¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1? SELL No 100¢ $3 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? BUY No 73¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? BUY No 72¢ $4 13d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? BUY No 57¢ $4 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.90 · official $1.90 (match) · 329 history records