Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75be…fb77 sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-13%) realized −$64 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$68
14 days+$68
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 22% +$75
other 21% −$62
finance 17% +$19
crypto 16% −$52
world 13% −$11
tech 6% −$35
politics 4% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +102.4% +83.1% 57% 57% +73.3%
≤30d 14 +92.2% +73.9% 57% 50% +31.4%
≤90d 29 +18.9% +7.6% 34% 31% -22.1%
all 29 +18.9% +7.6% 34% 31% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.6% 31% -22.1%
10% -2.7% 28% -29.5%
15% -12.1% 24% -36.3%
20% -20.7% 24% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)29 / 44
History coverage78d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 37¢ 12¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-69%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Yes 12¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +344%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$9 +195%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$5 -65%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $24 +$56 +231%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $9 +$16 +172%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 02 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 30 $8 $0 -4%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? May 30 $29 −$1 -5%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $7 +$7 +97%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $3 +$17 +525%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? May 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 14 $4 −$1 -33%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 08 $5 −$4 -97%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? May 08 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 2.8% and 3 Apr 09 $4 $0 -4%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $41 −$13 -31%
Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? Apr 03 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 3.4% and 3 Apr 01 $4 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 01 $73 −$48 -66%
Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15? Apr 01 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $14 +$4 +31%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 3.1% and 3 Mar 31 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $85 +$15 +17%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 30 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $13 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 16h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 17h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 17h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 17h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $9 4d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 16d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $7 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 16d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.02 · official $74.03 (match) · 81 history records