trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 29% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 31% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 31% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 24 | -2.1% | -11.5% | 33% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.5% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -19.9% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -27.7% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -34.8% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 51¢ | 54¢ | $37 | $39 | +$2 (+6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? | Jun 20 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 20 | $12 | $0 | -4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 19 | $39 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 19 | $6 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 18 | $78 | +$2 | +3% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 08 | $41 | $0 | -1% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $63 | −$1 | -1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 05 | $79 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 04 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 12 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | Jun 27 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | −$1 | -45% |
| Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | May 19 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 19 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? | Mar 20 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? | Mar 18 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? | Mar 17 | $12 | $0 | +0% |