Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:29:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
75 0x75c6…86b4 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$63 (+1%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$72
sports 44% +$251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -5.8% -14.8% 43% 21% -6.5%
≤30d 28 -5.8% -14.8% 43% 21% -6.5%
≤90d 28 -5.8% -14.8% 43% 21% -6.5%
all 28 -5.8% -14.8% 43% 21% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 21% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 11% -15.5%
15% -30.4% 7% -23.7%
20% -37.2% 4% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$16 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage2d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $1,171 +$79 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,060 +$104 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $101 −$5 -5%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $903 +$124 +14%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $200 +$8 +4%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $101 +$9 +9%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $188 +$1 +1%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 +$9 +46%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $21 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $102 −$5 -5%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $103 +$4 +4%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$1 -1%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $167 −$161 -96%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 +$5 +15%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $20 −$5 -24%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $105 −$17 -16%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$12 -60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $154 +$34 +22%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $101 +$58 +58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $404 −$30 -7%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $20 +$5 +26%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 96¢ $0 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 97¢ $156 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 89¢ $60 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $53 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 86¢ $118 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 86¢ $643 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 86¢ $150 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 86¢ $9 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 86¢ $9 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 86¢ $9 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 86¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 86¢ $9 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 86¢ $154 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 81¢ $931 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $9 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,164 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,060 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $97 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 16h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway $10 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $903 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 70¢ $208 19h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 16¢ $109 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $200 19h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $101 19h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $190 19h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $188 19h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 35¢ $7 19h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $5.00 · 77 history records