trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -3.5% | -12.7% | 0% | 0% | -12.5% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 7% | 0% | -11.1% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 7% | 0% | -11.1% |
| all | 28 | -8.3% | -17.0% | 21% | 0% | -12.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.0% | 0% | -12.6% |
| 10% | -25.0% | 0% | -20.9% |
| 15% | -32.2% | 0% | -28.6% |
| 20% | -38.9% | 0% | -35.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 89¢ | $29 | $29 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $36 | −$1 | -3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 16 | $39 | −$3 | -8% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $49 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $16 | −$3 | -20% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 13 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 12 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 10 | $17 | $0 | -3% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 05 | $47 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg | May 20 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the next Pope be from Africa? | May 09 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 | May 08 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? | May 08 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the | May 07 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? | May 07 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian p | May 06 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend | Apr 30 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Greens be part of the next German government? | Apr 29 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad | Apr 29 | $13 | $0 | -4% |
| Arsenal wins the Premier League? | Apr 28 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Zelenskyy puts on a suit by Friday? | Mar 11 | $14 | $0 | +1% |