Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:13:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75ca…7f1b other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$311 (-1%) realized +$5,502 · open −$5,813
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,541per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$3,951now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 154d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$7,707
sports 8% −$271
crypto 2% +$1,062
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -10.4% -19.0% 50% 50% +8.5%
≤30d 4 -10.4% -19.0% 50% 50% +8.5%
≤90d 4 -10.4% -19.0% 50% 50% +8.5%
all 8 -13.6% -21.8% 38% 38% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 38% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 38% -20.1%
15% -36.1% 38% -27.8%
20% -42.4% 25% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,496 vs −$1,718 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$3,951
Realized+$5,502
Unrealized−$5,813
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage154d
Avg bet$5,541
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 28¢ $9,245 $3,881 −$5,365 (-58%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 11¢ $500 $51 −$449 (-90%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,534 −$1,169 -76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,519 +$1,062 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,368 −$2,326 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7,870 +$5,078 +64%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $3,000 +$1,348 +45%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 21 $17,700 −$1,533 -9%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 20 $10,000 −$324 -3%
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? Jan 18 $3,238 −$3,238 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany $365 38m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 24¢ $1,534 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 11¢ $513 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $2,225 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,449 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $1,452 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $11,744 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,581 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,519 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $844 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,524 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $12,948 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $7,870 27h
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 69¢ $3,000 132d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $6,334 150d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $9,833 151d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 73¢ $9,676 151d
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 152d
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 152d
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes $150 152d
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes 11¢ $288 152d
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes $200 152d
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes $200 152d
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes 15¢ $700 152d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $4,200 152d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 76¢ $10,000 152d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $10,000 153d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $3,500 153d
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,500 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,950.97 · official $3,952.38 (match) · 31 history records