Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:05:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
75 0x75cb…1556 other 995 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1032 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$672 (+384%) realized +$533 · open +$139
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +959% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +716% what you keep after slip
Net edge+716%after slip
Net WR94%break-even
Win rate94%32W / 2L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day1031.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$127
sports 6% +$10
politics 4% +$9
world 4% +$9
crypto 3% +$5
weather 3% +$3
tech 2% +$9
finance 2% +$2
culture 2% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1032 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +94%
net ROI/market (all)+858.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +959.4% +858.5% 94% 94% +645.3%
≤30d 34 +959.4% +858.5% 94% 94% +645.3%
≤90d 34 +959.4% +858.5% 94% 94% +645.3%
all 34 +959.4% +858.5% 94% 94% +645.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1031.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +858.5% 94% +645.3%
10% ← realistic here +766.8% 94% +574.0%
15% +683.0% 94% +508.9%
20% +606.3% 94% +449.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +781% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +959% · $-wt +781% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +998% → late +921% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×94.42 per $1 lost it wins $94.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$345
Realized+$533
Unrealized+$139
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses32 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions499
Markets (closed)34 / 995
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$0
Trades / day1031.9
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 499 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $19 +$15 (+400%)
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+950%)
Will Washington Nationals win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $3 +$2 (+950%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Noah Taylor be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $3 +$2 (+950%)
Will Stripe’s market cap be between $80B and $100B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Yair Rodriguez fight Alexander Volkanovski next? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+600%)
Will Azamat Murzakanov be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+600%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Stripe’s market cap be $140B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+200%)
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+450%)
Theo James announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in June? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+450%)
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+450%)
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C or below on May 19? Jun 28 $0 +$1 +106138%
Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 28 $0 +$2 +2269%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 28 $0 +$1 +1100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $0 +$1 +500%
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 British Gra Jun 28 $0 $0 +1100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 28 $0 $0 +235%
Will Solana reach $130 in June? Jun 28 $0 +$3 +1099%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? Jun 28 $0 +$1 +500%
Will Austria win the World Cup? Jun 28 $0 $0 -83%
Will Iran be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 28 $0 +$1 +401%
Will England finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 27 $0 +$2 +500%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 27 $0 $0 +1100%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 27 $0 $0 +1100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $0 $0 +886%
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $0 +$2 +500%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland Jun 27 $0 +$1 +713%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 27 $0 +$3 +2300%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $0 +$2 +1100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 27 $0 +$2 +1100%
Will Scott Bottoms win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary e Jun 27 $0 +$2 +1066%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 27 $0 +$1 +500%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? Jun 27 $0 +$2 +1100%
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $0 +$2 +1100%
Will Colombia be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI Jun 27 $0 $0 +187%
Will New Zealand concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 26 $0 $0 +1100%
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 26 $0 +$2 +1100%
Will South Korea win the World Cup? Jun 26 $0 $0 -56%
Will the Republican Party win the WA-01 House seat? Jun 26 $0 $0 +1100%
Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 26 $0 +$2 +500%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 25 $0 +$2 +1100%
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 25 $0 +$2 +1100%
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 1 Argentina? Jun 25 $0 +$2 +1772%
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 25 $0 +$2 +9373%
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 25 $0 $0 +1100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will Liam Lawson win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will Arvid Lindblad win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 0¢ $0 23m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 0¢ $0 25m
Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will Microsoft have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 48m
Will Microsoft have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 48m
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will Oliver Bearman get pole position at the 2026 F1 British Grand Pri BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Charles Gambaro be the Republican nominee for FL-06? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will South Africa reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Kevin Lee McCants win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic prim SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Damon Anderson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Noah Taylor be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Eric Hovde win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Alexander Albon win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Fernando Alonso win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Lance Stroll win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.95 · official $468.27 · 3500 history records