Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:05:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75cc…aee7 world 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate33%23W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$8
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$6
other 23% −$4
politics 19% $0
sports 11% −$13
economics 6% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$2
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 20% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 27 -1.2% -10.6% 37% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 68 -0.7% -10.2% 34% 1% -9.8%
all 69 -2.1% -11.5% 33% 1% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 1% -10.2%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses23 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage482d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $15 −$1 -7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $13 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $15 −$2 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $9 −$1 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $141 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $76 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $45 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $73 −$3 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $15 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $72 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $36 +$2 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $22 −$2 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $35 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $39 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $121 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $34 $0 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $34 $0 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $60 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $35 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $2 $0 -9%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $14 25m
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 24¢ $9 2h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $32 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $24 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $30 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $22 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $22 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $13 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $24 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $31 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $15 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.10 · official $0.00 · 248 history records