Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75cc…6b15 weather 559 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$310 (-2%) realized −$293 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%203W / 347L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$306
7 days−$930
14 days−$889
30 days−$588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$562
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 -7.9% -16.7% 19% 11% -19.9%
≤30d 410 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 30% -13.6%
≤90d 550 -2.8% -12.0% 37% 34% -12.6%
all 550 -2.8% -12.0% 37% 34% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 34% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 33% -20.9%
15% -28.1% 32% -28.6%
20% -35.2% 31% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$293
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses203 / 347
Open positions8
Markets (closed)550 / 559
History coverage60d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? Yes 48¢ 40¢ $90 $75 −$15 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 27? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? No 46¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26? Yes 50¢ 89¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+76%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? No 48¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 27? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $117 −$8 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $70 −$55 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27? Jun 26 $98 −$8 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 25? Jun 26 $3 +$6 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 26 $220 −$14 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 27? Jun 26 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 25 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26? Jun 25 $100 −$7 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 25 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? Jun 25 $22 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $68 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? Jun 25 $94 −$7 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$2 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$5 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 25 $134 −$27 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? Jun 25 $94 −$8 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26? Jun 25 $42 −$4 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $46 −$24 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26? Jun 25 $162 −$16 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $153 −$16 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $141 −$15 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 26? Jun 25 $68 −$6 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? Jun 25 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? Jun 25 $170 −$21 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $35 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Jun 24 $61 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? Jun 24 $22 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? Jun 24 $62 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 24 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? Jun 24 $38 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 24 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 24 $152 −$8 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 26? Jun 24 $24 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 24 $2 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 25? Jun 24 $8 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 24 $162 −$14 -9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 24 $169 −$15 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? Jun 24 $100 −$8 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? BUY No 46¢ $3 26m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 53¢ $46 42m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 53¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 53¢ $47 42m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 56¢ $39 42m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 56¢ $12 42m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 57¢ $51 42m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27? SELL No 50¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27? SELL No 50¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27? BUY No 54¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27? BUY No 55¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 26? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? SELL Yes 43¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? BUY Yes 47¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? BUY Yes 48¢ $72 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 46¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 46¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 50¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 51¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 27? SELL No 53¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 27? SELL No 53¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 27? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.40 · official $87.55 (match) · 1779 history records