Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x75cc…51a3 other 74 markets active 13h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,769 (+2%) realized +$1,664 · open +$105
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate56%38W / 30L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$986per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$9,561now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$333
7 days−$499
14 days−$306
30 days+$609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$892
crypto 23% +$846
sports 12% −$490
tech 10% +$41
politics 8% +$515
world 5% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +16.2% +5.1% 39% 32% -13.7%
≤30d 50 +13.5% +2.7% 50% 30% -7.9%
≤90d 68 +9.1% -1.3% 56% 26% -6.9%
all 68 +9.1% -1.3% 56% 26% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 26% -6.9%
10% -10.8% 21% -15.8%
15% -19.4% 12% -23.9%
20% -27.3% 9% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,040) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$76 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$9,561
Realized+$1,664
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses38 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions6
Markets (closed)68 / 74
History coverage70d
Avg bet$986
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 93¢ 97¢ $2,784 $2,914 +$130 (+5%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 82¢ 82¢ $2,456 $2,471 +$15 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 92¢ 97¢ $1,840 $1,949 +$109 (+6%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 88¢ 77¢ $1,623 $1,423 −$200 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $735 $785 +$50 (+7%)
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $71 +$29 +41%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $70 −$26 -38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $461 −$246 -53%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $78 +$22 +28%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,040 +$56 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $225 +$75 +33%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $219 −$95 -44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $237 +$63 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $252 −$90 -36%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $189 −$45 -24%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 +$46 +1329%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $928 +$464 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $76 −$58 -76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,822 −$505 -28%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $293 −$122 -42%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 15 $25 −$2 -6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $293 +$40 +14%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $410 −$135 -33%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $110 −$70 -64%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,003 +$96 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $121 −$59 -48%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $4 +$4 +100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $724 −$9 -1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,334 +$412 +31%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$36 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $302 −$121 -40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 −$28 -46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$67 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $23 +$37 +158%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $84 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $192 +$17 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,209 +$91 +8%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $927 +$44 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 07 $6,989 +$41 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 02 $2,853 −$35 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,322 +$179 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,008 +$192 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $2,790 +$210 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $2,760 +$240 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $174 −$41 -24%
Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 27 $550 +$65 +12%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $2,892 +$105 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $71 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $43 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $70 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $32 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $35 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 32h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $75 32h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $95 38h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $97 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $100 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $27 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $200 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,560.51 · official $9,564.51 (match) · 504 history records