Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75d6…9ee0 crypto 105 markets active 13h ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-2%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate80%84W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$40
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$48
politics 0% $0
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -1.5% -10.9% 81% 38% -11.7%
≤30d 101 -1.4% -10.8% 81% 39% -11.9%
≤90d 103 -2.3% -11.6% 81% 38% -12.0%
all 105 -3.1% -12.4% 80% 37% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 37% -12.2%
10% -20.7% 22% -20.6%
15% -28.4% 12% -28.2%
20% -35.4% 8% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses84 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage583d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$49 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $17 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 280 history records