Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
75 0x75d6…900a sports 10 markets active 8h ago coverage 132d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$135 (-23%) realized −$189 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$146
sports 23% +$154
crypto 7% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 -32.7% -39.1% 33% 33% -23.5%
all 9 -33.4% -39.7% 33% 33% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 33% -30.3%
10% -45.5% 33% -37.0%
15% -50.8% 22% -43.1%
20% -55.6% 22% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$45 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$189
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage132d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $216 $270 +$54 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 17 $101 +$182 +180%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, M Apr 05 $2 $0 +24%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 06 $34 −$34 -100%
76ers vs. Warriors Feb 04 $1 +$1 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 7h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $110 7h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $6 7h
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 40¢ $15 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 60d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Warriors 35¢ $101 61d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 49¢ $15 65d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, M BUY Navajo Stirling 81¢ $1 83d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, M BUY Navajo Stirling 81¢ $1 83d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 83d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $34 129d
76ers vs. Warriors SELL 76ers 100¢ $2 132d
76ers vs. Warriors BUY 76ers 51¢ $1 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.00 · official $270.00 (match) · 17 history records