Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x75d8…2e25
crypto · 330 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$496 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$437 · open −$59
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$281
Realized−$437
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses123 / 197
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions10
Markets (closed)320 / 330
History coverage111d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 10 History 320 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$259
7 days+$259
14 days−$83
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Over 61¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Yes 11¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$52 +103%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $81 −$31 -38%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $41 −$18 -45%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$2 -11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$15 -29%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $20 −$2 -12%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +111%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $31 +$11 +35%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $20 +$15 +72%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 +$91 +223%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$43 -84%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$57 +112%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$21 +102%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $49 +$50 +102%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$13 +135%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 04 $28 −$28 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 04 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 04 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$2 +194%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 04 $20 +$36 +181%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 04 $37 +$45 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 03 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 02 $21 +$33 +156%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 01 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 31 $56 +$91 +163%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 30 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 30 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 30 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 30 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 30 $24 +$35 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 62% −$261
other 18% +$887
world 14% −$1,302
sports 6% +$201
weather 0% −$9
culture 0% −$11
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 57m
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 57m
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 58m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $103 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes 15¢ $18 4h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $36 4h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 5h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 5h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 5h
Raphinha: 1+ goals SELL Yes 32¢ $18 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $48 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 19h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $15 20h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $20 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $107 23h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 17¢ $41 23h
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 23h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 27h
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 27h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $30 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +29.5% +17.1% 53% 53% +28.2%
≤30d 76 -4.5% -13.6% 38% 38% -14.2%
≤90d 263 -24.8% -32.0% 30% 30% -32.5%
all 320 +7.4% -2.8% 38% 38% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 38% -13.9%
10% -12.1% 37% -22.1%
15% -20.6% 36% -29.6%
20% -28.4% 36% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.21 · official $281.21 (match) · 1530 history records