Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:09:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x75d9…249c crypto 1088 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$274 (-8%) realized −$274 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate60%699W / 471L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day86.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days−$155
14 days−$200
30 days−$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$335
sports 2% −$23
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 -33.1% -39.5% 55% 31% -31.2%
≤30d 762 -21.1% -28.6% 62% 39% -23.8%
≤90d 1170 -22.3% -29.7% 60% 38% -24.0%
all 1170 -22.3% -29.7% 60% 38% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.7% 38% -24.0%
10% ← realistic here -36.4% 20% -31.3%
15% -42.6% 9% -38.0%
20% -48.2% 5% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$274
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses699 / 471
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1170 / 1088
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day86.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 73¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 395 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -48%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
ODI Series Pakistan vs Zimbabwe, Women: Pakistan vs Zimbabwe Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.12 · official $0.92 (match) · 3500 history records